More than 500 years ago, Niccolo Machiavelli, the father of modern political science, offered sound advice for would-be conspirators—and for rulers seeking to thwart conspiracies.       

He did so in The Discourses on Livy, a work of political history and philosophy. In it, he outlined how citizens of a republic can maintain their freedoms.    

One of the longest chapters—Book Three, Chapter Six—covers “Of Conspiracies.”  In it, those who wish to conspire against a ruler will find highly useful advice. And so will those who might well become the targets of conspiracies.

For conspirators, there are five ways their efforts can be foiled:

• Discovery through denunciation;
• Discovery through carelessness;
• Discovery through writings;
• Dangers in executing the conspiracy;
• Dangers following the execution of the conspiracy. 

Of these dangers, all but the last one have been examined so far.

Dangers following the execution of the conspiracy.

For Machiavelli, the greatest danger following the successful execution of a conspiracy is: 

….the attachment of the people to the prince who has been killed. There is no remedy against this, for the conspirators can never secure themselves against a whole people. 

[An example of this occurred in] the case of Julius Caesar, who, being beloved by the people, was avenged by them.  For having driven the conspirators from Rome, they were the cause of their being all killed at various times and places.

Machiavelli closes his chapter “Of Conspiracies” with advice to rulers on how they should act when they find a conspiracy has been formed against them.  

If they discover that a conspiracy exists against them, they must, before punishing its authors, strive to learn its nature and extent. And they must measure the danger posed by the conspirators against their own strength.

And if they find it powerful and alarming, they must not expose it until they have amassed sufficient force to crush it. Otherwise, they will only speed their own destruction. They should try to pretend ignorance of it. If the conspirators find themselves discovered, they will be forced by necessity to act without consideration.  

Niccolo Machiavelli

The foregoing was taken from Book Three, Chapter Six, of Machiavelli’s masterwork, The Discourses on Livy, which was published posthumously in 1531.

But elsewhere in this volume, he notes how important it is for rulers to make themselves loved—or at least respected—by their fellow citizens: 

Note how much more praise those Emperors merited who, after Rome became an empire, conformed to her laws like good princes, than those who took the opposite course. 

Titus, Nerva, Trajan, Hadrian, Antoninus and Marcus Auelius did not require the Praetorians nor the multitudinous legions to defend them, because they were protected by their own good conduct, the good will of the people, and by the love of the Senate.

On the other hand, neither the Eastern nor the Western armies saved Caligula, Nero, Vitellius and so many other wicked Emperors from the enemies which their bad conduct and evil lives had raised up against them.  

In his better-known work, The Prince, Machiavelli warns rulers who—like Donald Trump—are inclined to rule by fear:

A prince should make himself feared in such a way that if he does not gain love, he at any rate avoids hatred: for fear and the absence of hatred may well go together.

Donald Trump

By Machiavelli’s standards, Donald Trump has made himself the perfect target for a conspiracy.

During his first term as President, he viciously attacked many of the institutions Americans have cherished for more than 200 years. And during the first two years of his second term he has accelerated those attacks.

Among his targets: 

• Pardoning about 1,500 of his followers who violently tried to overturn the outcome of the 2020 Presidential election in the January 6, 2021 attack on Congress. More than 250 of those pardoned had been convicted of assaulting police.
• Firing the non-partisan board members at the John F. Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts—and having his toadies illegally rename it the Trump-Kennedy Center.
• Threatening to demolish the Center when a judge ordered him to remove his name from it.
• Flooding Minneapolis and St. Paul, Minnesota, with 3,000 Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents who terrorized (and in two cases murdered) both American citizens and illegal aliens. 
• Demolishing the East Wing of the White House to create a 90,000 square foot ballroom
• Ordering the Justice Department to indict his critics such as New York Attorney General Letitia James and former FBI Director James Comey.
• Repeatedly attacking the nation’s free press as “the enemy of the people” for daring to report his growing list of crimes and disasters.
• Supporting Russian dictator Vladimir Putin in his efforts to conquer independent Ukraine. 
• Demanding that Canada become the 51st state, aggressively raising tariffs on Canadian goods and even threatening military invasion.

As Machiavelli warned:

“When a prince becomes universally hated, it is likely that he’s harmed some individuals—who thus seek revenge. This desire is increased by seeing that the prince is widely loathed.” 

More than 500 years ago, Niccolo Machiavelli, the father of modern political science, offered sound advice on how citizens of a republic can maintain their freedoms.  

He did so in The Discourses on Livy, a work of political history and philosophy. One of its longest chapters—Book Three, Chapter Six—covers “Of Conspiracies.” 

This offers sound counsel for those who wish to conspire against a ruler. And for those who might well become the targets of conspiracies. 

Among his advisories: A single plotter avoids the danger faced by two or more conspirators: 

Since no one knows his intention, he can’t be betrayed by an accomplice.  

Anyone may form a plot, whether he is prominent or insignificant, because everyone is at some time allowed to speak to the prince. And he can use this opportunity to satisfy his desire for revenge.  

Joseph Stalin, undisputed dictator of the Soviet Union, may well have died at the hands of a single conspirator: His own secret police chief.  

Joseph Stalin

Throughout his nearly 30-year reign over the Soviet Union, at least 20 million men, women and children died—from executions, deportations, imprisonment in Gulag camps, and a man-made famine through the forced collection of harvests.  During the last weeks of his life, Stalin was planning yet another purge.

Among its intended victims: The highest-ranking officials of his regime.

Then, on March 5, 1953, Stalin died—officially from  a cerebral hemorrhage.

In the 2004 book, Stalin’s Last Crime, Vladimir P. Naumov, a Russian historian, and Jonathan Brent, a Yale University Soviet scholar, assert that he might have been poisoned.

If this happened, the occasion was during a final dinner with four members of the Politburo. Two of these were Lavrenti P. Beria, chief of the secret police, and Nikita S. Khrushchev, who eventually succeeded Stalin.

The authors believe that, if Stalin was poisoned, the most likely suspect was Beria. The method: Slipping warfarin, a tasteless and colorless blood thinner also used as a rat killer, into his glass of wine.

In Nikita Khrushchev’s 1970 memoirs, he quotes Beria as telling Vyacheslav M. Molotov, another Politburo member, two months after Stalin’s death: “I did him in! I saved all of you.”

According to Machiavelli: Those who take part in a conspiracy against a ruler are “the great men of the state, or those on terms of familiar intercourse with the prince.”

These are men who have access to him. Julius Caesar, for example, was stabbed to death by members of the Roman Senate, who feared his assuming dictatorial powers.

And Adolf Hitler was conspired against by colonels and generals of the German Army. He was in fact holding a war conference when a briefcase bomb exploded, killing three officers and a stenographer, but leaving Hitler only slightly injured.

Adolf Hitler

There are five ways a conspiracy can be foiled:

• Discovery through denunciation;
• Discovery through carelessness;
• Discovery through writings; 
• Dangers in executing the conspiracy;
• Dangers following the execution of the conspiracy.

Discovery through Denunciation: This occurs through treachery or lack of prudence among one or more conspirators.  

Treachery is so common that you can safely tell your plans to only your most trusted friends who are willing to risk their lives for your sake.  You may find that you have only one or two of these. 

But as you are bring more people into the conspiracy, the chances of discovery greatly increase. It’s impossible to find many who can be completely trusted: For their devotion to you must be greater than their sense of danger and fear of punishment.  

Discovery through Carelessness: This happens when one of the conspirators speaks incautiously, so that a third person overhears it. Or it may occur from thoughtlessness, when a conspirator tells the secret to his wife or child, or to some other indiscreet person. 

When a conspiracy has more than three or four members, its discovery is almost certain, either through treason, imprudence or carelessness. 

If more than one conspirator is arrested, the whole plot is discovered, for it will be impossible for any two to agree perfectly as to all their statements.  

Niccolo Machiavelli

If one of them becomes fearful—whether it’s the one who was arrested or is still at liberty—discovery of the conspiracy is certain. 

The best way to avoid such detection is to confide your project to your intended fellow conspirators at the moment of execution—and not sooner.  

A classic example of this occurred in ancient Persia. According to the Greek historian Herodotus: A group of nobles assembled to discuss overthrowing a usurper to the throne. The last one to arrive was Darius.

When one of the conspirators asked, “When should we strike?” Darius replied: “We must either go now at this very moment and carry it into execution, or I shall go and denounce you all. For I will not give any of you time to denounce me.”

At that, they went directly to the palace, assassinated the usurper and proclaimed Darius their new king.   

On October 22, Megan Lorraine Utz, 36, of Courtland, Alabama, was charged by the Justice Department with making threats against President Donald Trump. She was also charged with interstate transmission of threatening communication.         

According to the indictment and complaint, on October 5, 2026, Utz posted a threat on Facebook regarding Trump’s attendance at the upcoming football game between Alabama and Georgia in Tuscaloosa, Alabama,on October 10. 

Utz’s post stated: “He’s not allowed in my stadium! I’ll put a bullet through him if he dares.” 

Trump ultimately canceled his planned visit to the game because of Hurricane Isaias.

On October 6, 2026, FBI agents, Secret Service agents, and the Florence Police Department located Utz in Florence, Alabama.

The Florence Police Department arrested Utz pursuant to an active misdemeanor warrant for Harassing Communications issued by the Guin Police Department. 

“Threats of violence are taken seriously, and we are committed to protecting the safety of our nation’s leaders,” said U.S. Attorney Phillip W. Williams Jr. 

Given the layers of security surrounding Trump, the chances of Utz’ succeeding in assassinating him were microscopically small. But she made them non-existent when she violated a prime instruction by Niccolo Machiavelli.

Specifically:

I hold it to be a proof of great prudence for men to abstain from threats and insulting  words towards any one, for neither the one nor the other in any way diminishes the strength of the enemy—but the one makes him more cautious, and the other increases his hatred of you, and makes him more persevering in his efforts to injure you.

In this case, Trump never even heard the insult and threat. But those charged with protecting him did—and that was enough to guarantee Utz’ arrest and almost certain conviction for threatening the life of the President.

More than 500 years ago, Niccolo Machiavelli, the father of modern political science, offered sound advice for would-be conspirators—and for rulers seeking to thwart conspiracies.

He did so in The Discourses on Livy, a work of political history and philosophy. In it, he outlined how citizens of a republic can maintain their freedoms.  

One of the longest chapters—Book Three, Chapter Six—covers “Of Conspiracies.”  In it, those who wish to conspire against a ruler will find highly useful advice. And so will those who might well become the targets of conspiracies—such as President Donald J. Trump.

Niccolo Machiavelli

The most dangerous time for a ruler comes when he is universally hated. Thus, in his better-known work, The Prince, published in 1532, Machiavelli advises: 

A prince must take great care that nothing goes out of his mouth which is not full of the above-named five qualities, and he should seem to be all mercy, faith, integrity, humanity and religion.

…A prince must show himself a lover of merit, give preferment to the able, and honor those who excel in every art.

Besides this, he ought, at convenient seasons of the year, to keep the people occupied with festivals and shows….mingle with them from time to time, and give them an example of his humanity and munificence, always upholding, however, the majesty of his dignity, which must never be allowed to fail in anything whatever. 

Rulers who disregard this advice do so at their peril: 

A prince need trouble little about conspiracies when the people are well disposed.  But when they are hostile and hold him in hatred, then he must fear everything and everybody…. 

…[The Roman Emperor Commodus], being of a cruel and bestial disposition, in order to…exercise his rapacity on the people, he sought to favor the soldiers and render them licentious. 

On the other hand, by not maintaining his dignity, by often descending into the theater to fight with gladiators and committing other contemptible actions…he became despicable in the eyes of the soldiers. And being hated on the one hand and despised on the other, he was conspired against and killed.

When a ruler becomes universally hated, it is likely that he’s harmed some individuals—who thus seek revenge. This desire is increased by seeing he is widely loathed.

So his first priority must be to make himself beloved—or at least avoid hatred.

By doing this, he protects himself from such vengeance-seekers. There are two reasons for this:  

1. Men rarely risk danger to avenge a wrong; and
2. Even if they want to avenge a wrong, they know they will face almost universal condemnation because the prince is held in such high esteem.  

Machiavelli draws a distinction between plots and conspiracies.

A plot may be formed by a single individual or by many. The first isn’t a conspiracy, since that would involve at least two participants.  

A single plotter avoids the danger faced by two or more conspirators: 

Since no one knows his intention, he can’t be betrayed by an accomplice.  

Anyone may form a plot, whether he is prominent or insignificant, because everyone is at some time allowed to speak to the prince. And he can use this opportunity to satisfy his desire for revenge.  

Joseph Stalin, undisputed dictator of the Soviet Union for almost 30 years, may well have died at the hands of a single conspirator: His own secret police chief.