More than 500 years ago, Niccolo Machiavelli, the father of modern political science, offered sound advice on how citizens of a republic can maintain their freedoms.  

He did so in The Discourses on Livy, a work of political history and philosophy. One of its longest chapters—Book Three, Chapter Six—covers “Of Conspiracies.” 

This offers sound counsel for those who wish to conspire against a ruler. And for those who might well become the targets of conspiracies. 

Among his advisories: A single plotter avoids the danger faced by two or more conspirators: 

Since no one knows his intention, he can’t be betrayed by an accomplice.  

Anyone may form a plot, whether he is prominent or insignificant, because everyone is at some time allowed to speak to the prince. And he can use this opportunity to satisfy his desire for revenge.  

Joseph Stalin, undisputed dictator of the Soviet Union, may well have died at the hands of a single conspirator: His own secret police chief.  

Joseph Stalin

Throughout his nearly 30-year reign over the Soviet Union, at least 20 million men, women and children died—from executions, deportations, imprisonment in Gulag camps, and a man-made famine through the forced collection of harvests.  During the last weeks of his life, Stalin was planning yet another purge.

Among its intended victims: The highest-ranking officials of his regime.

Then, on March 5, 1953, Stalin died—officially from  a cerebral hemorrhage.

In the 2004 book, Stalin’s Last Crime, Vladimir P. Naumov, a Russian historian, and Jonathan Brent, a Yale University Soviet scholar, assert that he might have been poisoned.

If this happened, the occasion was during a final dinner with four members of the Politburo. Two of these were Lavrenti P. Beria, chief of the secret police, and Nikita S. Khrushchev, who eventually succeeded Stalin.

The authors believe that, if Stalin was poisoned, the most likely suspect was Beria. The method: Slipping warfarin, a tasteless and colorless blood thinner also used as a rat killer, into his glass of wine.

In Nikita Khrushchev’s 1970 memoirs, he quotes Beria as telling Vyacheslav M. Molotov, another Politburo member, two months after Stalin’s death: “I did him in! I saved all of you.”

According to Machiavelli: Those who take part in a conspiracy against a ruler are “the great men of the state, or those on terms of familiar intercourse with the prince.”

These are men who have access to him. Julius Caesar, for example, was stabbed to death by members of the Roman Senate, who feared his assuming dictatorial powers.

And Adolf Hitler was conspired against by colonels and generals of the German Army. He was in fact holding a war conference when a briefcase bomb exploded, killing three officers and a stenographer, but leaving Hitler only slightly injured.

Adolf Hitler

There are five ways a conspiracy can be foiled:

• Discovery through denunciation;
• Discovery through carelessness;
• Discovery through writings; 
• Dangers in executing the conspiracy;
• Dangers following the execution of the conspiracy.

Discovery through Denunciation: This occurs through treachery or lack of prudence among one or more conspirators.  

Treachery is so common that you can safely tell your plans to only your most trusted friends who are willing to risk their lives for your sake.  You may find that you have only one or two of these. 

But as you are bring more people into the conspiracy, the chances of discovery greatly increase. It’s impossible to find many who can be completely trusted: For their devotion to you must be greater than their sense of danger and fear of punishment.  

Discovery through Carelessness: This happens when one of the conspirators speaks incautiously, so that a third person overhears it. Or it may occur from thoughtlessness, when a conspirator tells the secret to his wife or child, or to some other indiscreet person. 

When a conspiracy has more than three or four members, its discovery is almost certain, either through treason, imprudence or carelessness. 

If more than one conspirator is arrested, the whole plot is discovered, for it will be impossible for any two to agree perfectly as to all their statements.  

Niccolo Machiavelli

If one of them becomes fearful—whether it’s the one who was arrested or is still at liberty—discovery of the conspiracy is certain. 

The best way to avoid such detection is to confide your project to your intended fellow conspirators at the moment of execution—and not sooner.  

A classic example of this occurred in ancient Persia. According to the Greek historian Herodotus: A group of nobles assembled to discuss overthrowing a usurper to the throne. The last one to arrive was Darius.

When one of the conspirators asked, “When should we strike?” Darius replied: “We must either go now at this very moment and carry it into execution, or I shall go and denounce you all. For I will not give any of you time to denounce me.”

At that, they went directly to the palace, assassinated the usurper and proclaimed Darius their new king.   

On October 22, Megan Lorraine Utz, 36, of Courtland, Alabama, was charged by the Justice Department with making threats against President Donald Trump. She was also charged with interstate transmission of threatening communication.         

According to the indictment and complaint, on October 5, 2026, Utz posted a threat on Facebook regarding Trump’s attendance at the upcoming football game between Alabama and Georgia in Tuscaloosa, Alabama,on October 10. 

Utz’s post stated: “He’s not allowed in my stadium! I’ll put a bullet through him if he dares.” 

Trump ultimately canceled his planned visit to the game because of Hurricane Isaias.

On October 6, 2026, FBI agents, Secret Service agents, and the Florence Police Department located Utz in Florence, Alabama.

The Florence Police Department arrested Utz pursuant to an active misdemeanor warrant for Harassing Communications issued by the Guin Police Department. 

“Threats of violence are taken seriously, and we are committed to protecting the safety of our nation’s leaders,” said U.S. Attorney Phillip W. Williams Jr. 

Given the layers of security surrounding Trump, the chances of Utz’ succeeding in assassinating him were microscopically small. But she made them non-existent when she violated a prime instruction by Niccolo Machiavelli.

Specifically:

I hold it to be a proof of great prudence for men to abstain from threats and insulting  words towards any one, for neither the one nor the other in any way diminishes the strength of the enemy—but the one makes him more cautious, and the other increases his hatred of you, and makes him more persevering in his efforts to injure you.

In this case, Trump never even heard the insult and threat. But those charged with protecting him did—and that was enough to guarantee Utz’ arrest and almost certain conviction for threatening the life of the President.

More than 500 years ago, Niccolo Machiavelli, the father of modern political science, offered sound advice for would-be conspirators—and for rulers seeking to thwart conspiracies.

He did so in The Discourses on Livy, a work of political history and philosophy. In it, he outlined how citizens of a republic can maintain their freedoms.  

One of the longest chapters—Book Three, Chapter Six—covers “Of Conspiracies.”  In it, those who wish to conspire against a ruler will find highly useful advice. And so will those who might well become the targets of conspiracies—such as President Donald J. Trump.

Niccolo Machiavelli

The most dangerous time for a ruler comes when he is universally hated. Thus, in his better-known work, The Prince, published in 1532, Machiavelli advises: 

A prince must take great care that nothing goes out of his mouth which is not full of the above-named five qualities, and he should seem to be all mercy, faith, integrity, humanity and religion.

…A prince must show himself a lover of merit, give preferment to the able, and honor those who excel in every art.

Besides this, he ought, at convenient seasons of the year, to keep the people occupied with festivals and shows….mingle with them from time to time, and give them an example of his humanity and munificence, always upholding, however, the majesty of his dignity, which must never be allowed to fail in anything whatever. 

Rulers who disregard this advice do so at their peril: 

A prince need trouble little about conspiracies when the people are well disposed.  But when they are hostile and hold him in hatred, then he must fear everything and everybody…. 

…[The Roman Emperor Commodus], being of a cruel and bestial disposition, in order to…exercise his rapacity on the people, he sought to favor the soldiers and render them licentious. 

On the other hand, by not maintaining his dignity, by often descending into the theater to fight with gladiators and committing other contemptible actions…he became despicable in the eyes of the soldiers. And being hated on the one hand and despised on the other, he was conspired against and killed.

When a ruler becomes universally hated, it is likely that he’s harmed some individuals—who thus seek revenge. This desire is increased by seeing he is widely loathed.

So his first priority must be to make himself beloved—or at least avoid hatred.

By doing this, he protects himself from such vengeance-seekers. There are two reasons for this:  

1. Men rarely risk danger to avenge a wrong; and
2. Even if they want to avenge a wrong, they know they will face almost universal condemnation because the prince is held in such high esteem.  

Machiavelli draws a distinction between plots and conspiracies.

A plot may be formed by a single individual or by many. The first isn’t a conspiracy, since that would involve at least two participants.  

A single plotter avoids the danger faced by two or more conspirators: 

Since no one knows his intention, he can’t be betrayed by an accomplice.  

Anyone may form a plot, whether he is prominent or insignificant, because everyone is at some time allowed to speak to the prince. And he can use this opportunity to satisfy his desire for revenge.  

Joseph Stalin, undisputed dictator of the Soviet Union for almost 30 years, may well have died at the hands of a single conspirator: His own secret police chief.